Agility · Customer Insight · Digital · e-commerce · Innovation · Store closings

Retail’s next punch in the face

Five years ago I wrote a post entitled: “The next punch in the face”, which you can read here.  I began by quoting noted retail legend Mike Tyson who allegedly said “everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.” My point, more or less, was that in the world we live in, we’re going to get punched. Sometimes we’ll see it coming, sometimes we won’t. But we must be prepared and we must get our organizations to be more agile.

A few years later, after a successful trip to the Metaphor Store, I decided I needed a less violent but still powerful message to underscore how innovation and transformation were rippling through the industry, sometimes casting brands against the rocks like boats in the tempest.

So it seemed easy to borrow from Jack Kornfield, one of my favorite spirituality teachers. My updated message, dripping with stolen metaphor, was to point out that once we wade into the ocean, waves are inevitable and that to cope with that reality we are all going to have to learn to surf.

So what does any of this have to do with thriving in today’s environment? Well, if one looks at what’s happening to retail today that is highly disruptive, much of it may feel like a punch when it fully hits. The waves may seem unending and often violent. But here’s where the metaphors lose power and relevance.

We SHOULD have seen it coming. At least, most of it. Instead what we have is more slow motion car crash than retail apocalypse–despite what the pundits say.

A brand that’s been in business over 100 years suddenly has 20% or more of its total store base it needs to close immediately? That didn’t happen overnight.

A retailer that has tons of customer data and dozens, if not hundreds, of marketers wakes up one morning and discovers they are not ready for Millennials?

A retailer with masses of merchants, sophisticated planning software, consultants galore, misses sales and margin plans quarter after quarter? I guess they suddenly got a whole bunch of new customers they didn’t notice and know nothing about?

A CEO goes to a conference (or on CNBC) and “enlightens” the audience about how most in-store purchases are driven by digital and how a consumer that shops in multiple channels is most profitable and shopping needs to be seamless and blah, blah, blah. Sir, anyone who’s been paying attention at all has known this for years (too bad I didn’t save my presentation to the Neiman Marcus Board from 2007 to show you),

Most of the troubles afflicting major retailers, wholesale brands and the commercial real estate market have been obvious for years and their impact highly predictable. You can go look it up. I’ll wait.

If we were paying attention, if we were doing the hard, necessary work, if we were innovating, rather than just talking about innovation, if we accepted the inevitable realities of the marketplace, how could we not have acted?

Awareness.

Acceptance.

Action.

Accountability.

Rinse and Repeat.

The only real surprise is how some of these leaders still have their jobs given what lousy surfers they’ve turned out to be or how awful they were at seeing the punch coming.

Maybe they over-looked the really hard part of surfing?

Or maybe they just don’t know how to take a punch?

Either way, the next time someone says “wow, nobody saw this coming” chances are they were looking the wrong way all along or too busy riding the brake when they need to step on the gas.

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CRM · Customer Growth Strategy · Customer Insight · Personalization · Share of attention · Uncategorized

This time it’s personal

A book that I read more than 20 years ago fundamentally changed my perspective on business overall and marketing in particular.

Peppers and Rodgers “The One to One Future” embedded in my psyche the notion that knowing more about your customer than your competition was a critical component of competitive advantage. And before long “treat different customers differently” became my mantra.

As brilliant as Don and Martha’s book is, it was, for the most part, way ahead of its time. To be sure, many brands and marketers benefitted from its wisdom. But overall, few brands saw personalization as a burning platform and many of the espoused concepts simply could not be operationalized in any practical and cost effective way.

For most, a strategy of uniquely identifying customers, differentiating them by their needs and value, interacting with them to understand their desires and then customizing the experience in a relevant and remarkable way, lingered somewhere between a dream and a nice-to-do.

Yet today personalization is not only increasingly possible at scale, it is rapidly and inexorably becoming a business imperative.

It’s an imperative not because it’s cool or sexy or sounds good at a conference.

It’s an imperative because the battle has shifted from market share to share of attention–and it’s increasingly difficult to be the signal amidst all the noise.

It’s an imperative because one size fits all marketing strategies are well past the point of diminishing returns.

It’s an imperative because we are drowning in a sea of sameness and delivering average products for average people gets you average results, if you are lucky, and gets you fired, if you aren’t.

It’s an imperative because the power has shifted irretrievably to the consumer and the only way to stand a fighting chance is to compete on deep customer insight, intense relevance, remarkability and trust.

That means small is the new big and intimate is the new interesting. And that, at last, the one to one future is here.

 

I will be moderating two very different expert panels on personalization during the next month. Stop by and say “hello” if you can.

On April 20th I’ll be with the Dallas-Fort Worth Retail Executives Association. Pre-register here: http://bit.ly/1Moj5ag  

Then it’s ShopTalk in Las Vegas on May 17th. More information is available at http://bit.ly/1qYKvul  Readers of this blog can use my promo code “sageb250” to save $250 on their conference registration.

Being Remarkable · Customer Insight · Share of attention

You picked a really bad time to be stupid

Last year I wrote a post entitled You picked a really bad time to be boring, the fundamental premise of which was that in a slow growth, highly competitive, ever noisier world, for our marketing to get noticed–much less acted upon–we had better go beyond average. We need to be truly remarkable.

Now I will admit remarkable is easier said than done. But can’t we agree that there is no reason to be stupid, ignorant, unaware or down right lazy with our marketing? Simply no excuse anymore for one-size-fits-all?

The fact is when a brand treats customers as part of an undifferentiated mass, they quickly lose interest. When we fail to demonstrate basic relevance we have little or no chance to command what is increasingly marketing’s limiting factor: customer attention.

Last week I got a voicemail from a sales person at a local car dealership. His pitch went like this: “Hi this is Dave from (car brand I have no interest in) in (town some 30 miles from me) and I was going through the White Pages (huh?) and came across your name and I thought you might be interested in the great deals we have this weekend on (names type of vehicle I also have no interest in). So give me a call when you get a chance.”

It would, of course, be easy to dismiss this as the misguided tactic of some mom & pop, largely clueless business owner who has found some poor sap to work on commission in the hopes of a hit or two. But this form of batch, blast and hope marketing remains common among many larger, more “sophisticated” brands.

As an example, I recently got an email from a luxury retailer that I may or may not have worked for in the past. The hook was this: “As one of our best customers, save an extra xx%…” Really? I have bought absolutely nothing from you in over 5 years and I’m one of your best customers? This brand–which is the same one that has sent me emails encouraging me to redeem my non-existent rewards points–possesses the data to know what my shopping behavior is and therefore could take a totally different, and presumably more effective, targeting strategy.

When brands make little or no effort to know us, show us they know us and show us they value us, our interest wanes. And it’s rarely long before a brand’s share of our attention starts to drop. In my experience, attention, once lost, is very hard to win back.

 

 

CRM · Customer Growth Strategy · Customer Insight

What’s the frequency Kenneth?

Every retailer can tell you about same-store sales. Most can readily quote their online conversion rates. Some can even dissect the composition of physical store visits (conversion rate, average transaction value, # of items per transaction and so forth). And, more and more, we’re hearing about metrics such as the growing percentage of digital engagement done on a mobile device. Much of this can be pretty useful.

Yet, we don’t hear much about frequency. When we do, it’s rarely broken down by key customer segments. That’s a mistake. And, all too often, a big one.

In my experience, one of the earliest signs of trouble is a decline in frequency–both in terms of shopping behavior and willingness to recommend. Low frequency, even when it’s comparatively stable, can be a sign of trouble as well. Conversely, growing frequency among core customer cohorts suggests strong forward momentum.

One of the reasons I knew the flash-sales category would hit the wall was the preponderance of low-frequency customers across the customer base of several well-known (and, as it turns out, ridiculously over-funded) brands. This fact, combined with declining frequency among the highest spending segments, spelled impending doom.

Similarly, it was increasingly obvious that a certain luxury department store was headed for trouble when frequency across all but one of the core customer segments we tracked was ebbing. Moreover, the remaining (and most profitable) segment’s revenue was only positive because of significant increases in average unit selling price, not through adding more customers or greater shopping frequency.

Understanding frequency is hardly the be-all and end-all of customer analysis. Yet you don’t have to be a Ph.D in statistics to dissect the data, nor do you need to be some sort of analytics savant to draw the requisite conclusions. You merely need to be willing to ask the question and dig deep into the root causes.

Oh, and it’s important that you be willing to act on the implications.

Being Remarkable · Customer Growth Strategy · Customer Insight · Loyalty Marketing

The wrong side of scarcity

The formula for success in retail–in being intensely relevant and remarkable for customers and investors alike–is ultimately rooted in scarcity.

Scarcity for a highly desired good or service amplifies demand and enables a brand to command a premium price. Conversely, abundance undermines those abilities.

So, let’s be honest, in your market sector are any of these things truly scarce?

  • Frequent % off promotional events
  • TV ads that focus on the above
  • A cash back rewards programs
  • Free shipping offers
  • Ability for consumers to gather product and price information
  • A selection of major national brands
  • Sunday newspaper circulars
  • A professional looking website
  • Convenient locations
  • Friendly sales associates.

How about these?

In a slow growth, ever noisier, consumer-in-charge world, it’s hard to see how doubling down on the already abundant is likely to get any brand very far. Yet that is where most our focus, energy and resources seem to be pointed.

Unfortunately what passes for strategy at a lot of companies is the notion of being better at being common. Good luck with that.

Customer Growth Strategy · Customer Insight

The easy prey

In most endeavors it’s a good idea to start with the easiest sale. Get the quick win. Gain some traction. Build a base. Rinse and repeat.

Organizations with any chance of staying around all have easy prey. The easy prey need the least convincing. The easy prey likes just about everything we do. They buy more often and more broadly. They’re typically the least price sensitive and provide the strongest word of mouth.

The tendency in established organizations is to rely on the easy prey too much, to go back to the well too many times. When I was at Neiman Marcus, our easy prey were the super wealthy who were intensely interested in the latest fashion. We raised our prices 8-10% per year and they kept buying. They loved the ridiculously expensive and exotic redemption opportunities in our InCircle Rewards program. We offered ever more exclusive merchandise and events and they cried “more, more, more!”

Unfortunately, the majority of our profits came from folks that weren’t in this elite segment, and our over-reliance on the best of the best started to chase them away (you’re welcome Nordstrom). When the recession came we were hit unnecessarily and devastatingly hard by the lack of balance in our customer portfolio.

For newer, rapidly growing brands, the typical mistake is to optimistically project that early success will readily scale. Many hot e-commerce brands are classic examples. These start-ups hyper-focus on a particular demographic and product-niche and use the advantages of the internet to quickly and cost effectively acquire an initial batch of customers. The metrics for the easy prey are impressive and venture capital dollars follow. Alas, the dynamics that worked so well for the easy prey become quite different (and challenging) as the business scales.

The next tranche of customers don’t get the value proposition as readily as the easy prey. They are harder to convert, requiring more expensive marketing and more costly incentives. Some may like the offering in concept, but want to see, touch and try on the product to be certain they wish to buy it. Acquisition costs go up and physical retail stores are often needed to scale the business to the next level. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it is a big change and fundamentally alters the nature of how the business operates and makes money.

All brands of any size are composed of multiple customer segments, each with somewhat different needs, values, emotions and behaviors. Some are easier to acquire, grow and retain than others. Some aren’t worth the effort. A well crafted growth strategy is rooted in a solid understanding of each segment and employs a targeted and balanced portfolio approach to maximizing customer value. It necessarily involves moving beyond the easy sale and moving outside of our comfort zone.

I suppose it’s human nature to choose the path of least resistance. Ironically, it’s when we get stuck in what is easy that suddenly things get very, very hard.

Customer Insight · Frictionless commerce · Omni-channel

At the intersection of choice and friction

As retail consumers, let’s stop and think about the choices we had a decade or so ago.

With few exceptions, almost all products were purchased from a physical store during limited store hours. For the most part, we selected from what was in-stock; custom orders were generally time-consuming and expensive. If we wanted to shop for alternatives we had to get in our car, walk to another store in the mall or, if we lived in a small town, drive many miles to explore the competition. It was pretty much the same drill if we wanted to check prices. Product reviews came from neighbors and friends, if we were lucky, or from sales people, if we weren’t.

Until fairly recently, many of our shopping experiences were laden with friction, primarily driven by scarcity of choice. Sometimes we had decent alternatives. Many times we did not. Often we had to settle for good enough.

Today, if anything, we are overwhelmed by choices. At a macro-level, consumers are experiencing less and less friction all the time as selection expands, prices decline, access becomes easier and information is abundant. Technology is enabling retailers to root out the so-called pain points in the customer experience. Fierce competition is unlocking more and more value for consumers.

But for many retail brands, this can be quite problematic. Mediocrity in the customer experience is now laid bare. Uncompetitive pricing, stale merchandise, out-of-stocks, long call-center hold times and the like, have gone from mere customer annoyances to the reasons customers are bailing in droves to the competition.

It amazes me that so few retailers truly understand what drives customer loyalty and how they stack up against the evolving competition.

It stuns me that so many brands remain clueless about the sources of friction in the shopping experience, particularly among their most profitable customers.

Blather on all you want about omni-channel this and omni-channel that. But if you don’t really understand what’s going on for your customers at the intersection of choice and friction, chances are you’re wasting your time.