Fashion · Luxury · Retail

Going Private Could Be The Best Thing To Ever Happen To Nordstrom — With One Big Caveat

Recently a roughly $8.4 billion offer from the Nordstrom family to take the namesake retailer private was rejected as inadequate. The deal now seems at risk as the special committee in charge of evaluating a potential transaction indicated that the price needed to be “substantially” and “promptly” improved upon or they would terminate further discussions.

While there is one major concern that looms large in any such deal, my hope is that the Nordstroms can get this done. While as a brand Nordstrom faces most of the same challenges that confront just about all retailers in this era of digital disruption, allowing the company to operate without the harsh and impatient glare of Wall Street could be a major long-term win. Here are a few key benefits to going private:

Avoiding the obsession with growth. The fact is that Nordstrom is fast becoming a relatively mature business. It has few new store openings to execute within its core concepts, it is very well penetrated in e-commerce, and there are not a ton of readily accessible wholly new categories (or geographies) to expand into. The Street’s obsession with growth for growth’s sake often pushes maturing brands to expand their core business too far (think Gap and J. Crew’s fashion missteps, Michael Kors’ distribution overexpansion, or Coach’s — and many others’ — over reliance on the outlet channel).

Minimizing the focus on largely irrelevant metrics. As I’ve been suggesting for many years, same (or comparable) store sales is an increasingly irrelevant metric, and as Brent Franson and I tackled more recently, the shifting nature of retail demands a whole new set of performance measures. Not having to be as concerned about monthly and quarterly reports will free Nordstrom to worry less about pleasing equity investors in the short term and enable greater focus on what they need to do to win over the long term.

Freedom to invest in physical retail. Despite the retail apocalypse narrative, physical retail is not dead; boring retail is. Fortunately Nordstrom has crafted a compelling digital presence, a well executed store model and a harmonious experience across channels. For the most part, Nordstrom full-line and Rack stores are in excellent real estate and it’s unlikely that they will have many store closings on the horizon despite the carnage around them. Nordstrom understands well that physical retail drives e-commerce and vice versa. The challenge is to continue evolving to address changing consumer demands, the emerging importance of younger shoppers and the convergence of digital and physical channels. To thrive Nordstrom must have both a remarkable digital experience and a remarkable brick & mortar experience. Despite what some in the investment community think, for some retailers additional investment in physical retail is not only necessary to keep pace, it is essential to maintain competitive advantage. Nordstrom is firmly in this category.

Ability to think long term and take prudent risks. While some investors are willing to take big bets on silly moon shots (but enough about Wayfair), those that invest in “traditional” retail tend to be more short-term focused and risk averse. Yet we live in a world where the future is getting harder and harder to predict and what will ultimately pay off may take years to become clear. Few retailers will survive, much less thrive, without leaning into more risk and establishing a strong test and learn culture. Historically Nordstrom has shown a willingness to be more innovative than most of its peers, including testing new formats (such as Nordstrom Local), buying emerging concepts (Haute Look and Trunk Club), as well as acquiring two technology companies just last week. While Nordstrom is largely past the capital intensive nature of their major investments in omni-channel infrastructure and expansion into Canada and New York City, there is every reason to believe that the future will require considerable investment and a greater tolerance for risk in order to stay truly remarkable.

Unlike most others in the largely undifferentiated department store space, Nordstrom already has a lot going for it and is not burdened with a crushing debt load like Neiman Marcus. Which brings me to the one big caveat.

Quite a few retailers have gotten into trouble by taking on too much debt through a private equity buyout. Unlike Toys R Us and others, which were struggling with the fundamentals of their core value proposition when they took on considerable leverage, the Nordstrom business model is fundamentally sound, the real estate portfolio is solid, and the management team is excellent and deeply experienced. Nevertheless, financial flexibility, as well as strategic and operating agility, will be key to navigating retail’s future. As mentioned above, Nordstrom is fortunate to have already done much of the heavy lifting where plenty of others are struggling to catch up. Yet, layering on substantial debt and interest payments may limit the company’s ability to make acquisitions and/or the technology investments to stay on the leading edge.

Fortunately the debt levels that are currently being contemplated don’t put the Nordstrom deal into the territory that ToysRUs and Neiman’s now find themselves. But obviously if the buyout price increases substantially it is likely the debt burden will as well. Investors also need to mindful of how well any company with considerable leverage would fare in a major economic downturn.

With any luck, a reasonable compromise can be achieved.

Brand Marketing · Customer Growth Strategy · Customer Insight · Growth · Marketing

The discount ring

I’m amazed that Wall Street analysts are “surprised” that as hot brands get bigger (think Michael Kors, kate spade), their level of discounting increases. Apparently they were all sleeping during their first year economics course when supply and demand was covered.


Whether it’s Walmart or Chanel, at the center of any brand’s customer bullseye will be customers who don’t need a discount (or any extra incentive) to buy. This is what I referred to in my recent obsessive core post. As we move out in the rings, away from the center, we encounter customer segments that are less and less intrinsically loyal and thus more in need of extra incentives to buy.

Since Walmart’s value proposition is largely about price–whereas Chanel’s rests on a high percentage of full-price selling–the composition and dynamics of these various customer segment rings will obviously be quite different. But the fact remains that as a brand grows by casting a wider net for customers it will, at some point, develop a discount ring.

As the name implies, customers in the discount ring don’t buy unless they get a deal. In fact, most brands will have multiple discount rings. There will be a ring that needs only minor or modest incentives to pull the trigger. Others only come off the sidelines when prices hit a much deeper level of markdown (or some other incentive).

Unless we are examining a brand that has decided strategically to shun price discounting completely–or assessing certain companies early in their life-cycle–the existence (and relative growth) of a discount ring should surprise no decent analyst.

The real question for anyone trying to understand the validity of a brand’s long-term customer growth strategy is whether the company has a firm grasp of the dynamics within each of these rings and is intelligently balancing the portfolio of these different customer segments.

Coach is a brand that in recent years lost its grip on its customer portfolio and pushed too far on the discount ring. They have paid a steep price and are now trying to rebalance.

In Michael Kors’ case, there are only so many customers willing to pay at or close to full-price for their core offering. Sustaining growth means appealing to more customers. And that means they will need to become more reliant on more price sensitive customers.

Ultimately the point at which the discount ring becomes meaningful is mostly a matter of brand maturity and math. If you get shocked by that it just means you’re not paying attention.

The starting point–the pivotal matter of strategy and intelligent customer development–is to build a level of deep insight about each relevant customer segment. Then we must become intentional about how each plays into the brand’s long-term growth. Having a discount ring emerge is not automatically a matter of good or bad. How it plays out over time is a strategic choice.

Choose wisely.

Customer Growth Strategy · Customer Insight · Customer-centric · Retail · Winning on Experience

Discount Nation and the sucker price

When was the last time you went to Macy’s or Bed, Bath & Beyond or any furniture store and paid full-price?  Did you actually pay for shipping on any e-commerce purchases during the holiday?

At most retailers, regular price is the sucker price. You only pay it out of desperation or ignorance.

Walk through any mall and you are inundated with sales signs, with coupons and with triple rewards points.  Buy one sports coat at regular price and get a second one at half-off?  Yes, please.

One retailer–I’m looking at you Gap–even put their whole store on sales for several hours during the run up to Christmas.

It makes perfect sense that product gets marked down as the season draws to a close.  It makes sense that your best customers get rewarded for concentrating their share of wallet with you. And faced with an intensely competitive market, one must certainly be mindful of maintaining market share.

But at what price comes the glory of same-store sales growth?

For years we have been teaching consumers that there is no integrity in our pricing. We have become a “discount nation”, bribing the promiscuous shopper to choose us over the competition while needlessly giving away margin to potentially loyal and profitable customers.

I don’t believe for a second that we are going to see an end to rampant discounting and blanket promotions any time soon. After all, it was just a few weeks ago that Target announced a new credit card that offers a straight 5% off all purchases.

I do believe that companies that deliver truly compelling value propositions and experiences based on a deep understanding of customers needs, wants and long-term profitability will win over the long-term.   I do believe that the best brands–think Apple, Nordstrom and Coach–know how to drive their business at regular price.

Those brands do the work of customer-centricity.

Those other brands?  We know what you are.  All we are doing is negotiating.



Being Remarkable · Customer Growth Strategy · Innovation · Winning on Experience

Surgical Shopping and the Hangover Market

Last holiday season I coined the term “surgical shopping” to describe the highly precise way many consumers were purchasing.  While the panic of late 2008 and early 2009 subsided, consumers were only gradually opening their wallets, focusing primarily on needs vs. wants and often trading down to brands that gave very clear bang for the buck.  By the time the numbers were in for the 4th quarter, it was clear that business was better, but not particularly good.

As an economic recovery struggles to gain traction, this “surgical shopping” behavior remains rampant, and in my opinion is not likely to change any time soon.

This behavior is evident on the lower end of the market, as private labels (or more accurately “private brands”) gain market share.  And it’s apparent on the higher end, as accessible luxury brands such as Coach, Nordstrom and J. Crew beat their more exclusive and expensive rivals.  Even at the absolute luxury tier, brands like Louis Vuitton, Gucci and Hermes outpace the competition as they emphasize their heritage of investment quality craftsmanship to win over flash in the pan, mostly pure image brands.

This is now the Hangover Market.  Waking from the intoxication of too much marketing and societal hooch, consumers are now shaking off the cobwebs and dry mouth of excessive, superficial spending.   And while it’s always difficult to predict future consumer behavior, many consumers are not going back to their old reckless spending habits.  For some, this will be out of economic necessity.  For others, this will be values based, as they become more discerning about the quantity of what they buy and the price they pay for certain items.

So what does this mean for business leaders and brand stewards?

Tangible, obvious value wins.

Craftsmanship wins.

Authentic wins.

Experience wins.

Connectedness wins.

Being remarkable wins.

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Customer Growth Strategy · Fashion · Retail

“Faux Clearance”: Do Outlet Store Customers Care?

One of the hottest retail segments right now is the outlet or off-price market.  Nordstrom, Saks and Neiman Marcus are opening more “clearance” stores than full-line stores.  Bloomingdale’s and Lord & Taylor have recently announced plans to open their own off-price formats.  Hundreds of manufacturers’ outlet stores from Ralph Lauren to Coach to Nike can be found throughout the country.

As I have learned in recent conversations with everyone from neighbors to business reporters to industry analysts, very few customers realize that the vast majority of product in most of these stores is NOT manufacturers’ overstocks or unsold merchandise from the full-price retail stores, but is in fact produced specifically for these stores.  I call this “faux clearance.”

Certainly these stores benefit from the impression that the reason you are getting such a great deal is that they had too much merchandise and had to mark it down to move it.   Their promotional material trumpets 30%, 40% (up to 70%!!!!)  off to reinforce that notion, when in fact in most cases that identical product has never been available anywhere at the “manufacturer’s suggested retail” or “compare at” price.  Deceptive? You decide.

With the retail outlet segment exploding–and the dramatic growth of “flash-sales” sites like Gilt and Rue La La–the reality is that the percentage of directly made for the channel product will only continue to rise.

So if you buy my premise that most customers of these store and sites do not understand the origin of the product in these channels–and btw if anyone has seen good data on this send it my way–would knowing actually change their behavior?

My guess is no, and here’s why.   The players that have been really successful in this market–one great example is Nordstrom Rack–understand that the core customer for these formats is a different customer than their full-line stores and have built the business model accordingly.  This is why Nordstrom can build a Rack store across the street or down the way from their full-line store and still thrive.  This is why we decided to accelerate the growth of our Last Call stores at Neiman Marcus and began work on a new concept.

The challenge going forward will be to consistently execute a compelling value proposition–and that means delivering an experience that complements the parent brand without diluting it and reliably offering great value in the product assortment.  This latter factor is not so easy, particularly as the demands of this channel increase dramatically.

But ultimately if these formats offer compelling price value in their assortments and a great customer experience, why should the customer care exactly why the product is being offered for sale?

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