By all accounts this holiday shopping season looks to be pretty solid overall–perhaps the best since 2010. Aggregate sales will likely be up between 3.5% and 4.0%. E-commerce year-over-year growth will come in around 17%. Retailers’ inventories seem to be generally in good shape, which should allow most to deliver strong gross margin performance. And despite the silly retail apocalypse narrative, I’ll even venture to say that sales in physical stores will show a slight increase.
Of course a given retailer’s mileage will vary; often considerably. The future of retail will not be evenly distributed. As we’ve seen in recent years, the fortunes of the have’s and have not’s continue to diverge. For more and more retail brands it’s death in the middle.
While we can be certain that the coming weeks will be filled with stories dissecting this season’s winners and losers, the truth is we already know the outcome. The retailers that consistently offer a relevant and remarkable value proposition–and execute well against it–are growing, making good money and (hold on to your hat) opening stores–sometimes a lot of them. We see this across a spectrum of price points. Off-price retail, warehouse clubs and dollar stores doing well; great, typically higher-end, specialty stores gaining share and delivering solid profits.
The simplistic notion that physical retail is going away is clearly flat out wrong. The continuing rise of Amazon does not spell doom for all of retail. The rapid growth of e-commerce hardly represents the death knell for traditional brick & mortar stores. For every Sears, Radio Shack and Borders, there is a Best Buy, Walmart or Nordstrom. The failed (and failing) retailers are the ones that did not innovate, that thought the physical store and e-commerce were the channels, when the customer was the channel all along. Somehow they believed they could cost cut their way to prosperity instead of evolving to where the customer was moving. Lower costs and drastic pruning of store locations mean precisely nothing if when the dust settles you are still drowning in a sea of sameness.
Physical retail is not dying. Boring retail is.
The fault is not with stores, it’s with stores that are irrelevant and unremarkable.
The fault in our stores lies in seeking to be everywhere and ending up being nowhere. The fault in our stores lies in aiming to be everything to everybody and being mostly “meh” to just about everyone. The fault in our stores emanates from retailers failing to understand the customer journey and committing to ruthlessly rooting out friction points and amplifying the experiences that really matter along that journey. The fault in our stores rests in retailers unwillingness to experiment and take prudent risks.
The shift of power to the consumer is not going away. What was once scarce rarely is anymore. Most customer journeys will start in a digital channel. Seamless integration across channels is now table-stakes. Good enough no longer is. Today’s basis for competition is being redefined, often radically.
As it turns out it’s an especially bad time to be boring.