Holiday Sales · Retail

Cyber Monday and the world’s easiest retail prediction

There are a lot of things that are hard to know about the future of retail. Predicting that Cyber Monday will set a record is not among them.

One doesn’t need a team of analysts, the latest in machine learning algorithms, IBM Watson or a Ph.D in statistics to come to this conclusion. One just needs to acknowledge that e-commerce has been growing on average about 15% year over year for the last several years.

So while I have not seen a precise breakout, I’m willing to guess that e-commerce set a record just about every day this year–and has done so for many years. It’s been true for the Saturday before Christmas, for Thanksgiving, for Black Friday last year and the year before that and the year before that. And it will be true for this Thursday and next Wednesday. And I’m willing to bet it will be true in 2019 as well.

Whether the specific increase on any given day will vary much from the longer-term trend will largely be a function of the intensity of promotional offers, consumer confidence and the vagaries of weather (which can affect folks’ willingness to go to a store as well as whether seasonal merchandise does unusually well or not). Given this–and without the benefit of any sophisticated tools–my guess is Cyber Monday sales will be up around 20%.  Check in with me tomorrow to see how I did.

Of course whether I or anyone else is mostly right or mostly wrong means just about nothing. There is no news value in the predictions and there is very little strategic import in the actual outcome. Retailers have already ordered their merchandise for the holiday season. A good chunk of staffing and marketing is already decided upon. For the most part, the retailers with winning digital value propositions will run increases better than the averages and the losers will cede relative share. We knew that going into today and we will know it tomorrow.

So the news is not in whether the industry numbers increased 17% or 27%. The news is not in any given retailer’s decision to offer 2 day free shipping or take their discount up to 25% over last year’s 20%. You don’t have to be a retail savant to decide to give margin away. Anyone can engage in a race to the bottom. The sad fact is you can be a pretty boring retailer and still post a decent sales increase on Cyber Monday if you are desperate enough.

No the real news concerns those retailers that are doing what it takes to be more remarkable day in and day out. That aren’t chasing their tails seducing the promiscuous customer. That aren’t continuing to swim in a sea of sameness where the only thing they can do to move the top-line is to give stuff away.

A version of this story appeared at Forbes, where I am a retail contributor. You can check out more of my posts and follow me here.  

Since the article originally appeared the Cyber Monday specific numbers are in. Sales were up 19.3%. How sales and profits will turn out. Well who knows?

 

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