Digital Disruption · Radical · Retail

Gee, I thought you were in the mattress business?

In my current keynote, I make the observation that many retailers have gotten themselves into trouble watching the last decade or so happen to them. Primarily for this reason, No. 8 in my “Essentials of Remarkable Retail” is the need to be “Radical” and to embrace a culture of experimentation.

Clay ChristiensenGary Hamel and many others have highlighted how legacy brands often struggle to keep pace with innovation. While there are some examples of industry incumbents responding well to disruption, it is far more typical (at least in retail) for companies to get this wrong. Having been a Sears executive when, arguably, there was still a chance for a meaningful turnaround, I often point out that we did not lack the knowledge that Home Depot and Lowe’s were on a trajectory to destroy our primary competitive advantage. What we lacked was the willingness to act. Some of this was clearly linked to culture, process, risk aversion and the like. But a lot of it was tied to how we defined what business we were in. This faulty line of thinking is a mistake oft repeated.

The latest example of this phenomenon is what’s transpiring in the $29 billion mattress category. Drive around any major city and you’re likely to encounter quite a few mattress specialty stores, the most prominent being Mattress Firm with over 3,000 locations in the U.S. Department stores like Macy’s and JC Penney also have significant mattress businesses. Mattresses are sold through traditional furniture stores like Ashley or Haverty’s as well. Given the size and profitability of the industry, the pace of digital disruption and competitive intensity, you might think that a few of these players would be aggressively pursuing innovative new formats. You’d be wrong.

In a rather ironic twist, Casper, which launched as an online only brand in 2014 and has raised $240 million in venture capital funding, is set to open 200 stores while industry leader Mattress Firm appears about to file bankruptcy to facilitate mass store closings. Casper is far from the only industry insurgent. Purple, Saatva and others are all trying to carve out sizable and sustainable positions. Most will not be around in 5 years time, but they will wreak havoc in the meantime and one or two might get acquired for what is likely to be stupid money. In fact, Tuft & Needle, Casper’s primary direct competitor, just merged with mattress manufacturing behemoth Serta Simmons.

casper_stores_1.0

Given the accelerating pace of change and the investment community’s tendency to value growth over profit, it’s not easy to be certain which disruptive model will take hold and which will be exercises in setting a big pile of cash on fire. Nevertheless, if you are Folger’s and you limit the way you see your business, you miss the value created by Starbucks. If you are Blockbuster and decide you are in the business of distributing videos through physical locations, you miss Netflix. If you are Sears and you decide you are a multi-category retailer selling a whole bunch of stuff mostly through mall-based department stores, you miss the home improvement warehouse opportunity. Oh yeah, and you also miss Amazon.

Many things in life are defined (and obscured) by our lens and filters. We need not look beyond the partisan hackery of America’s current political climate to see the truth of this. Yet in the context of how we manage our brands, respond to disruption and stay one step ahead of the consumer, we should take a lesson from the world of psychology. There are three fundamental steps to unlocking the opportunity that lays beyond our fears. First, is awareness. We must deeply understand our customers, their journey and how it is evolving, as well as the competitive dynamics that are at play. Second, is acceptance. We can see something but not truly own the truth of it and all the potential implications. The third is, of course, the most important: action.

Until we find ourselves in the arena, trying stuffseeing failure as an option, we are likely to have the next decade happen to us as well.

A version of this story appeared at Forbes, where I am a retail contributor. You can check out more of my posts and follow me here.  

On October 16th I’ll be in San Antonio delivering the opening keynote at X/SPECS . November 8th I’ll kick of the eRetailerSummit in Chicago.

For more info on my speaking and workshops go here. 

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