It would be hard to calculate the crazy amount of media and analyst time spent anticipating, covering and then trying to dissect the implications of this year’s Amazon Prime Day event. In fact, each year it seems like the breathless coverage moves closer and closer to the media frenzy that surrounds Black Friday. It’s mostly a complete waste of time.
Here’s the thing: Going into this year’s Prime Day, there were a few outcomes we could easily predict. First, it was going to be a record day. Second, knowing virtually nothing, you could reasonably guess that the year-over-year growth was going to be materially higher than the general trajectory Amazon has been on this year. Why? Well that’s what happened each of the last several years, and that’s what almost always happens when any brand intensifies promotions around a particular event. Third, Amazon was going to distort efforts toward the strategic areas it’s focused on building (i.e., voice-activated commerce, its private brands and generally anything that reinforces why everyone on the planet should be a Prime member). Why? C’mon, you can answer that question for yourself. Fourth, major competitors were going to dial up their efforts to protect marketshare. Why? Because that’s what retailers always do, whether it’s rational or not.
The last major thing we knew going into Prime Day is that, post-event, Amazon was not going to share anything especially useful or specific about its actual category or financial performance.
And, yes, that’s precisely what happened. Apparently my crystal ball remains in good working order.
So here we are looking back at the event, reading, watching or listening to folks like me — and hopefully some real journalists from time to time — trying to make sense of it all, which leaves me inclined to ask three questions. First, did we learn anything substantive that we didn’t already know beforehand? Second, more specifically, does any of the information gleaned from Prime Day help us make a more accurate prediction about what’s next? Third, if you work at a retailer (or supplier), now that are you armed with any incremental and actionable knowledge gained, are you going to do anything different in the future?
Now here’s where I need to briefly make the comparison to Black Friday. Since I’ve worked in retail, which is now more than 25 years, Black Friday has become a bigger and bigger deal, both in terms of the media attention it garners and the time and energy most retailers put against it. And the two things that have become clear over time is that most of what happens on Black Friday is completely predictable in advance and that actual performance on Black Friday is a poor indicator of how the industry will do that overall holiday season and how any given retailer’s results will turn out. In other words, it’s mostly much ado about nothing.
So with regard to my first two questions, I’m struck by how Prime Day is becoming more and more like Black Friday — and, for that matter, the unfortunately named Cyber Monday. Sure, they will be huge volume days. Sure, they will rack up bigger numbers than last year. But did we really learn anything that we didn’t already know, other than it turns out Amazon’s website also crashes from time to time?
Which brings me to a follow-on to the third question I posed: As a retail leader (or someone who provides services to the industry), regardless of whether you actually gained any new knowledge and insight this week, what is it you are actually doing to fight and win in the age of Amazon?
From where I sit, many of us (myself included) spend way too much time watching things happen, rehashing things we already know and staying stuck in judgement and critique.
Don’t fall for the hype. Don’t get sucked into the media vortex. It may feel like it’s useful to watch the talking heads on CNBC. You might feel like you are learning something poring over various articles and newsletters. But it’s a distraction and a trap. Most of us already know what we need to do.
The hard part isn’t the analysis. The hard part is the doing.
A version of this story appeared at Forbes, where I am a retail contributor. You can check out more of my posts and follow me here.
On October 3 I’ll be doing a keynote at the ICSC Canadian Convention in Toronto. Hope to see you there.