Retail’s zero-sum game

I’ve got some bad news for you if you are in retail in North America or Western Europe.

In just about every sector–if you strip out inflation–the size of the pie is not growing. Moreover, you would be hard pressed to argue that this will change any time soon. With few exceptions, the brutal reality is that the capacity and willingness of most of your customers’ to increase their category spending is stuck in neutral. Get used to it.

Sure, the high-end is doing a little bit better (for now), but that’s largely driven by relatively price inelastic demand and an influx of foreign shoppers. Chances are that’s not your situation.

And, yes, there is continued strong growth in e-commerce, but most of that is either channel shift or leakage to unprofitable pure-plays. Of course if you are Amazon it’s a totally different story. But you are not Amazon.

Perhaps you work at a handful of brands that offer something truly differentiated and highly relevant to a sizable part of the market. If so, you are grabbing a greater share of that pie. For the rest of us, that just means our share of the pie is shrinking. Unaddressed, that is almost certain to end badly.

More and more, the vast majority of retailers are playing in a zero-sum game. More and more, the opportunity to drive top-line through store openings has evaporated. In fact, most retailers will be closing stores and shrinking the square footage of the one’s that they keep. Shrinking to prosperity is rarely a sustainable strategy.

Simply stated, driving real growth only happens by stealing market share, by growing share of wallet. And that means being more relevant and more remarkable than the competition.

It demands developing actionable customer insight as a basis for competitive advantage. It requires abandoning much of what you got you to where you are and embracing strategies and tactics that will get you to where you need to be. It means taking on more risk than you are used to.

Sure it can be scary. But quite frankly you have no alternative.

Oh, and I’d hurry if I were you.

 

 

2 thoughts on “Retail’s zero-sum game

  1. Pingback: My most poplar blog posts this year | Steve Dennis' Blog

  2. Pingback: Growing share is retail’s new black | Steve Dennis' Blog

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